New gas wells just aren’t what they used to be. Even after drilling more than 300,000 new natural gas wells over the last 35 years, the U.S. produces less natural gas now than it did back in 1973. Putting more holes in the ground doesn’t make more gas – in fact, quite the opposite. Just ten years ago, the U.S. was drilling about 11,000 new wells per year to maintain a production rate of 20 Quads of gas per year – a rate that hasn’t changed in more than thirty years. Today, drillers must complete three times that many wells to produce the same amount of gas.

Despite the furious pace of drilling, the amount of natural gas in storage for winter is about 5 percent lower than it was at this time last year, according to the Energy Information Administration. If the injection season finishes poorly, or drilling platforms and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico sustain a big hit from Hurricane Ike this weekend, the price of natural gas could skyrocket this winter the way it did back in 2001. The difference this time is that our ability to respond with increased drilling is limited.